Download Mobi Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks By Will Kurt

Download PDF Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks By Will Kurt

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Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks-Will Kurt

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Ebook About
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from themNext time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks Review :



I am about a quarter of the way through the book and I’ve learned a ton. The author uses great examples to clarify key concepts. I actually learned some of the material in the book in college but didn’t fully understand how or when to apply the techniques until now. I would highly recommend as a supplement for any stats student or professional looking to refresh on Bayesian statistics. Huge thumbs up for being an easy read as well.
The focus of my professional work is the development and analysis of trading systems. My constant challenge is understanding, monitoring, and measuring the relationships between the model, the data it processes, the target it predicts, and the results it produces.Managing trading systems requires comparing real-time results with benchmarks, estimating risks, and adjusting position size. Being able to estimate confidence intervals is critically important. Bayesian analysis is the primary technique I use.Mr. Kurt clearly explains how individual data values form distributions, and how the shape and metrics of the distributions change as new data is observed. He outlines the theory underlying Bayesian analysis, carefully identifying each of the components and explaining how each is determined. He describes calculation of credible intervals of confidence for means, and probabilities that the means of distributions are different. The descriptions of techniques are clear and presented with a minimal amount of math.This book is an excellent introduction to the techniques used in modeling and managing trading systems.

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